GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Wed Apr 1, 2020
<p>In the last two days, the mountains received 12-18” of new snow with 1.3-1.5” <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/taxonomy/term/451">snow water equivalent</a> (SWE) favoring the southern ranges. The mountains near West Yellowstone and Cooke City received nearly two feet of snow with 2” SWE. Strong gusts of wind built drifts of snow where human triggered avalanches are likely today. Recent avalanche activity and shooting cracks can indicate this instability. On many slopes, the new snow is adding stress to a weak layer buried 2-3’ deep. The weak layer has presented as a melt-freeze crust, feathery surface hoar crystals, and near-surface facets. We have found it on many slopes (but not all) and received reports of people triggering avalanches on this layer across our advisory area (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/avalanche-activity"><strong>avalanche activity,</strong></a> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZkyjbN1sWl0&list=PLXu5151nmAvSbcbVf… and Taylor Fork video</strong></a><strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6eItO1yerM&list=PLXu5151nmAvSbcbVf… Ridge video</strong></a>). Choose to assess for this layer with a snowpit and stability test or choose to stay out of avalanche terrain.</p>
<p>Dangerous avalanche conditions exist today and human triggered avalanches are likely. Plan conservatively to minimize your time in and exposed to avalanche terrain and carefully assess the snowpack and route choices. The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE.</p>
<p>In the last two days, the Bridger Range received 13” of snow with 1.2” SWE with light 5-10 mph winds from the west. Small drifts exist near ridgelines and in isolated areas (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/20/natural-small-slab-large-cornices…;)</strong> and are dangerous in technical terrain where they can push you into obstacles and cause trauma. Today, avalanches within the new snow and on weak layers buried 1-3 feet under the snow are the primary concern (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_hEBqY67-g&list=PLXu5151nmAvSbcbVf… video</a></strong>). Cool temperatures and clouds will minimize the wet snow danger today. However, do not underestimate how quickly stability can deteriorate if the sun pokes out this afternoon and the snow surface gets wet.</p>
<p>Human triggered avalanches are possible today. Use careful snowpack assessment and conservative terrain choices to minimize your exposure and respect the state’s stay-at-home directive by opting for mellow objectives close to home. The avalanche danger is MODERATE.</p>
<p>We plan to end daily avalanche forecasts on Sunday, April 5<sup>th</sup> and continue with general bulletins every Monday and Friday through April. We have taken down most weather stations and will no longer receive observations from guides and ski patrol. We need help gathering field data. Please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can fill out an <a href="https://mtavalanche.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6653a830e4819c9e…; target="_blank">observation form</a>, email us (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com" target="_blank">mtavalanche@gmail.com</a>), leave a VM at 406-587-6984, or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>
Backcountry Skiing and Stay-at-home Order
A Stay at Home order is in effect for the State of Montana due to COVID-19. This order specifically discourages “outdoor recreation activities that pose enhanced risks of injury or could otherwise stress the ability of local first responders to address the COVID-19 emergency (e.g., backcountry skiing in a manner inconsistent with avalanche recommendations or in closed terrain)”.